Position papers and frameworks for decision-making under uncertainty. Versioned over time.
Foundational
Risk Ordered Prioritization
A framework for making decisions under uncertainty
Digital
PDF
From Data to Actionable Intelligence
Why intelligence fails without discipline
Digital
PDF
Decision Systems Under Uncertainty
Why waiting for certainty creates forced decisions
(work in progress)
Reality Alignment: Intent vs Outcome
How institutions misclassify threats — and respond too late
(work in progress)
Applied
The Invisible War
Economic warfare as a strategic domain
Digital
PDF